To hit or not to hit?

Recently I came across this position when playing Gnu Backgammon:

 

 

White to play 65

 

I thought that the big decision is: hit with 13/2* or play it safe with 13/8, 9/3. I hit on the 2, reasoning that I'm only slightly ahead in the race (4 points before the move), I have the stronger board, and gnubg has two blots in his home board, so if it manages to re-enter and hit me it should not be able to consolidate its board. I concluded that I'm well ahead if I hit.

On the other hand, if I play it safe I have no blot, but I risk that after 62, 55, 54, 53, 52, 44 gnubg gets out. That's 10 rolls that make the game even.

So I played the big blunder 13/2* (-0.21 equity compared to 13/8, 9/3, according to XG2's rollout).

Here's the dice distribution of gnubg rolls after my two moves:

 

Rolls after the best move, 13/8 9/3. Only 55 is dangerous (bringing gnubg's blot to safety)

 

 

Rolls after my move, 13/2. If gnubg hits me with a 2, XG considers me no longer a favorite.

Seems I overestimated the danger of gnubg escaping when I play safe - only a 55 diminishes my significant lead. I also underestimated my winning chances. I was expecting a small lead like 0.2, not the 0.8 XG assesses. 

My hitting move makes gnubg a favorite if it hits. That's also something I didn't expect. But if you actually look at the positions after every move 2+x, it shows that gnubg can always cover one of the blots and make a three-point board itself, giving us an almost symmetrical position (and costing me 23 pips in the race, obviously).

The basic lesson I learned: with a big roll like 65, don't consider the pipcount before but after the move. I was not 4 pips ahead but 15, which is quite a lead and which suggested a conservative play.

My greatest misses, part 1: a subtle detail on bearing off

Okay, I'm only an advanced level backgammon player dreaming of playing on expert level some day, but maybe my worst blunders can be instructive to other non-pros. 

Here's one you might enjoy. It might be trivial for you, and I'm embarassed that I missed it. I learned - situations that look like "there's only one move so don't even start thinking" are still worth thinking.

 

 

Here I didn't think. It was clear, there is only one checker that can move the 6, so I moved 8-2. Then I needed to move the 4, so I moved 3-off. XG tells me this is a horrible blunder worth half a point (0.44 to be precise). 

The right move is to move the 4 first - 8-4, and then bear off the 6 with 4-off, leaving no blot.