In this match against XG Mobile I made a horrible mistake, and one that took me a long time to even understand.
White to play 41.
So what do you think? Play it safe or split the back checkers and try to run?
My reasoning was: Black has 11 men in the zone, if I split now with 23/18, he will build a big board or prime and just kill me. Better play it safe and wait for a good roll to bring my back men home. So I played 9/8, 9/5 and was very proud of this move that gave me much flexibility in the next rolls.
XG2 said: -0.46. Biggest blunder in weeks, recommending 23/18.
That really was a WTF moment for me - splitting my back checkers against so many of his builders? Running into a 4-way attack? The only numbers that don't hit me are 55 and 25.
Only once I played 10 games from this position I noticed the difference: black is closing in fast. If I don't act now it will build a strong prime in the next moves. But if I split and endure his hit, I have some good fighting chances because of its weaker inner board. Many hits give me return hits.
The lesson this taught me: don't overestimate the opponent's blitzing chances if their board is weaker than yours. Is that the lesson? Hm.
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